Separation of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty from Inter-Event Residuals in Ground Motion Prediction Equations
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Epistemic versus Aleatory Judgment Under Uncertainty
Both cases involve judgment under uncertainty, with a mixture of evidence supporting and opposing each event’s likelihood. Yet, they involve what appears to be two qualitatively distinct representations of uncertainty. In the first case, Allie’s uncertainty reflects the unpredictability inherent to a stochastic process (i.e., random draws from the pool of Bingo numbers). This type of uncertaint...
متن کاملGround-Motion Prediction Equations for Eastern North America from a Referenced Empirical Approach: Implications for Epistemic Uncertainty
I outline a referenced empirical approach to the development of groundmotion prediction equations (GMPEs). The technique is illustrated by using it to develop GMPEs for eastern North America (ENA). The approach combines the ENA ground-motion database with the empirical prediction equations of Boore and Atkinson (2008) for the reference region of western North America (WNA). The referenced empir...
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1. Abstract This paper presents a design optimization methodology under three sources of uncertainty: physical variability (aleatory); data uncertainty (epistemic) due to sparse or imprecise data; and model uncertainty (epistemic) due to modeling errors/approximations. A likelihood-based method is use to fuse multiple formats of information, and a non-parametric probability density function (PD...
متن کاملJudgment Extremity and Accuracy under Epistemic versus Aleatory Uncertainty
People view uncertain events as either knowable in principle (epistemic uncertainty), as fundamentally random (aleatory uncertainty), or as some mixture of the two. We show that people make more extreme probability judgments (i.e., closer to 0 or 1) for events they view as entailing more epistemic uncertainty and less aleatory uncertainty. We demonstrate this pattern in a domain where there is ...
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Article history: Received 17 April 2015 Received in revised form 18 June 2015 Accepted 6 July 2015 Available online 22 July 2015
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering
سال: 2013
ISSN: 1884-6246
DOI: 10.5610/jaee.13.37